Crude's near-term direction hinges almost entirely on one chokepoint: the Strait of Hormuz.
The dominant view in published research this week is bullish, driven by renewed US airstrikes on Iran, tanker disruption through Hormuz, and Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia. Several research notes argue markets are now pricing prolonged disruption rather than a temporary shock, with Brent approaching $86–87. One camp of analysts sees the path pointing "more towards the mid-nineties than back to the low seventies," and recent commentary flagged a weekly price surge of more than 12% tied to the escalation. Falling US gasoline inventories — down roughly 5.8 million barrels over three weeks — are cited as added support.
A conditional bearish thread runs alongside it: if the strait reopens or a US-Iran understanding holds, some published projections see Brent drifting back toward $70 and staying subdued through 2027. The most independently bearish view, grounded in inventory data rather than geopolitics, has Brent averaging $74 this quarter and $65 by 2027.
Same data, different assumptions about Hormuz.