Oil's split screen: near-term bullish on Middle East risk, longer-term bearish on oversupply.
Published research this week is heavily tilted bullish on crude in the short run, with Brent pushed back toward $80/bbl. Analysts point to Iran's claim of closing the Strait of Hormuz, direct US–Iranian missile exchanges, and threats to Gulf energy infrastructure as the main geopolitical premium. A secondary tightening comes from refined products, where researchers highlight Russia's diesel export ban and Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries squeezing diesel supply.
Looking further out, a contrarian thread argues the opposite. One camp sees Brent falling from roughly $85/bbl in late 2026 to $59–62/bbl by 2028–30 as war premiums fade and supply recovers. Another cites a projected 4.8 million barrel/day surplus by 2027 from demand destruction and new supply, with UAE and Iraq capacity expansion flagged as a persistent glut driver.
The real disagreement is conditional: bears assume the Strait of Hormuz reopens as negotiated; bulls assume it doesn't. That single variable frames the whole debate.