Oil's risk premium has evaporated — and most published research this week argues there's further to fall.
The dominant view across recent analyst notes is that the US–Iran peace framework and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz have wiped out the war-related supply premium, pushing Brent and WTI below pre-conflict levels. Several research desks describe a "mini tsunami" of supply hitting at once: strategic reserve releases plus rising Gulf, African, and Iranian exports. Gasoline is expected to track crude lower into the second half of the year, and Asian refining margins have already collapsed as medium-heavy sour crude returns to market. One strategic forecast circulating among analysts sees refined fuels drifting from ~$110/bbl today toward $90 by end-2027.
A contrarian thread of research pushes back. Some argue Hormuz normalization will be slow — only 30–40% of supply back within weeks, ~80% over a year — keeping prices roughly $10/bbl above pre-conflict levels for 6–12 months. Others point to global reserve refilling as a durable floor, and to Chinese crude imports running nearly 40% below the 2025 average as a structural drag few are pricing in.