Crude oil: the published research consensus this week leans bearish, with most analysts expecting Brent and WTI to grind lower as Middle East supply normalises.
The core argument across recent research notes is that the geopolitical risk premium is fading fast. Researchers point to roughly 7.2 million barrels recently exiting the Strait of Hormuz — well above prior weeks — alongside returning flows from the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, and even higher Iranian exports. One camp argues the Q2 spike near $106 was purely conflict-driven and sees a meaningful decline extending into 2026. More tactical research targets $70–$72 on WTI and suggests fading any bounce above $78. A structural thread also flags accelerating electrification as a longer-term drag.
On refined products, some recently-published views see a conditional bullish setup for diesel: if Russia implements a diesel export ban (~900k b/d), the gasoil crack could push back above $41 from ~$38, with Brazil especially exposed.
One contrarian thread disagrees on Brent, arguing rising Hormuz transits over the next 30 days could actually support flows — though that's a volume call, not a price call.