Assets

• Cross-assetMarkets are flipping on a single catalyst: the Strait of Hormuz reopening has drained the geopolitical premium from oil and gold, lifted the dollar, and forced a sharp rethink across asset classes.
• GoldGold just broke below $4,000/oz, and most published research is bearish in the near term — but a notable strategic bull camp says the long-term story is still very much intact.
• SilverSilver: published research is split, with the near-term tilt bearish but a contrarian recovery case building underneath.
• PlatinumPlatinum's setup looks structurally tight, according to research circulating this week.
• PalladiumPalladium is facing a structural demand problem, according to research published this week.
• CopperCopper is emerging as one of the strongest structural long ideas in commodities, according to recently published research.
• OilOil's risk premium has evaporated — and most published research this week argues there's further to fall.
• Natural gasPublished research is leaning firmly bullish on natural gas and LNG, pointing to AI-driven power demand, geopolitical supply risk, and a structurally tightening market.
• BitcoinPublished research on Bitcoin skews heavily bearish across the near and medium term, with only one strategic bull case standing apart.
• US equitiesUS equities are deeply split right now: published research is openly at war with itself on whether AI earnings momentum justifies current prices or whether the market is forming a cyclical top.
• European equitiesGerman stocks: a split-screen story between today and the next two years.
• US bondsTreasury research is split down the middle right now — and the divide is really about whether the Fed stays patient or has to chase a slowdown.
• EU bondsEuropean bond markets are splitting by maturity and by country, according to recently published research — and the stories don't actually contradict each other.

Macro

• Macro themesThree forces are dominating markets right now: sticky US inflation, a Fed signaling hawkishness without committing, and a fast-collapsing Middle East risk premium reshaping oil and rate expectations all at once.