Oil markets are flashing bearish near-term but mixed longer out, according to a wide sweep of public research this week.
The dominant view across recently-published research is that the Middle East risk premium is unwinding fast. Analysts point to stranded Persian Gulf barrels returning, Hormuz traffic normalizing, and supply from Venezuela, Iran, Brazil, and Guyana ramping. One published forecast sees the first global oil surplus arriving in August 2026, with Brent sliding into the low $60s by late 2027.
A contrarian thread of recent research pushes back over longer horizons, citing depleted commercial inventories, below-average strategic reserves, and years of upstream underinvestment. Some of these views see Brent rebounding to $80–$85 by end-2026 before easing. On products, multiple researchers expect US gasoline to follow crude lower, with retail prices projected near $3.50 by November.
The sharpest tension: one published call sees WTI spiking toward $94 in mid-2026, while another expects a surplus to open up in that exact window. Same timeframe, opposite directions.