Oil markets are sharply split right now, according to recently published research.
The dominant view across analysts is bearish near-term: Brent and WTI are falling as a US-Iran ceasefire takes hold and the Strait of Hormuz reopens, draining the geopolitical risk premium out of front-month contracts. Some research also flags weak Chinese refinery demand and US strategic reserve data as added headwinds. One published projection sees Brent drifting toward $80 by year-end if the ceasefire holds; another targets around $85. A notably bearish thread argues WTI could fall into the $60s.
A contrarian camp pushes back, arguing the current weakness won't last. Their case: damaged infrastructure, slow production restarts, depleted inventories that need refilling, and peak summer demand all mean supply relief comes through gradually. One strand of analysis splits the horizons explicitly — softer over the next few months, structurally tighter once strategic buffers run down.
Analysts also note Brent's backwardation has already compressed to pre-war levels, suggesting the peace scenario is largely priced in.