Oil's narrative this week pivoted on one question: does a US–Iran deal reopen the Strait of Hormuz?
Most research published during the window leaned bearish, with Brent sliding toward the high $80s on diplomatic optimism. If a deal sticks and shipping resumes, analysts broadly see prices drifting into the low $80s by year-end, with some projecting a deeper reversion to the $60s–$70s as supply normalizes and demand destruction bites. A few forecasts went further, calling for a structural unwind back toward $40–$50 over time.
But the bullish case did not disappear. Several teams flagged that Cushing inventories sit well below five-year norms, and warned that if talks collapse, a late-July inflection could send Brent to $120–$140 as OECD and China stocks draw down. One house held a $100 Brent baseline and called the selloff a buying opportunity; another cautioned that sticky logistics could keep oil elevated, pressuring core inflation and a hawkish Fed.
Bottom line from the week's research: diplomacy is doing the heavy lifting, but the downside scenario is priced more confidently than the tail risk.