Oil is caught in a two-speed story, according to the bulk of research published this week: near-term upside from Strait of Hormuz disruptions, but a sharp retracement once a US-Iran ceasefire lands.
The dominant view across most analyst notes ties the price spike to constrained crude and refined-product flows through Hormuz, layering a real risk premium onto Brent and WTI and feeding broader energy inflation. One published note adds that the US summer driving season is simultaneously drawing down domestic inventories and tightening export capacity.
On resolution, the consensus expects ceasefire progress to unwind that premium. Specific forecasts circulating include Brent at roughly $80 in FY2026 easing to $64 in FY2027, and another house targeting $85/bbl by end-2026. The starkest scenario set has WTI above $95–$110 on a full Strait closure versus below $88 on a signed deal.
Where researchers split: one camp argues a Hormuz deal stays elusive through September, keeping Brent bid. A contrarian thread says early diplomatic signals have already pulled Brent lower and the bearish impulse continues. A minority view holds oil has simply peaked, regardless of geopolitics.