Published oil research is leaning heavily bullish in the near term — but with a clear caveat: the entire bull case hinges on the Strait of Hormuz staying closed.
The dominant thesis across recent research is supply disruption. One updated base case now assumes the Strait remains largely shut through September, with Q3 crude pegged at $120/bbl and Q4 at $100/bbl. Other analysts point to a US inventory drawdown nearly triple expectations — roughly 8 million barrels — as hard evidence the physical market is tightening. A separate thread highlights that strategic reserve releases from the US and China have temporarily capped prices, but those buffers are expected to run dry by late July or early August.
Where the published views appear to diverge is really about scenarios, not direction. The bearish camp — including one structural call for a 2027 average near $77/bbl — explicitly conditions downside on a ceasefire or reopened sea lanes. Forward futures pricing crude into the $70s over twelve months reflects that eventual-resolution base case, not comfort with today's supply picture.
Net: the disagreement is scenario-driven, not directional.