Oil: the week's published research was overwhelmingly skewed to upside risk, even as prices drifted lower into the weekend.
With the Strait of Hormuz still effectively closed, most analysts argued the risk premium is here to stay. Scenarios floated for Brent ranged from $120 in Q3 to non-linear spikes toward $150–$180 if escalation widens, with one bullish projection putting WTI as high as $167 within three quarters. A recurring theme: even a swift deal wouldn't quickly refill drained inventories, with several desks calling $90 a credible floor and others flagging diesel and jet fuel as the tighter pinch points. A few contrarian voices made the disinflationary case — that a Hormuz reopening could send Brent back toward the $70s and that the energy impulse fades into H2.
By late week, the published tone softened modestly as ceasefire talks dragged without progress and prices eased — researchers reframed the standoff as one that could persist for weeks, with crude grinding lower in the interim even as structural upside risks remain firmly intact.