Published oil research is leaning heavily bullish, with the dominant view being that Strait of Hormuz disruptions have delivered a supply shock large enough to keep crude structurally elevated for months. The main bearish path is conditional on a US-Iran diplomatic deal landing.
Several recent research notes argue that even a quick resolution wouldn't normalize supply right away — logistics, infrastructure repair, and inventory rebuilds take time. One published forecast sees Brent averaging around $120 in Q3; another projects $110 for Q2 and $97 across 2026, with a non-linear spike to $130–$150 if Hormuz fails to reopen. Some analysts describe the disruption as roughly three times the size of the post-Ukraine shock, arguing markets are underpricing forward risk. A contrarian thread frames current spikes as transitory, expecting more normalized levels by early 2027.
The apparent bull-bear split is mostly about horizon and conditions, not true disagreement. Tactical caution sits on a days-to-weeks view; cyclical bulls are speaking in quarters.