Assets
- Cross-assetPublished research this week is converging on a hawkish-rates, oil-risk-premium regime: central banks keep tightening against energy-driven inflation, long yields and the dollar stay supported, and AI-linked equity and…
- GoldGold's near-term story hinges on one number: $4,000. Published research this week leans constructive on the metal structurally, but acknowledges the next move depends on how the Fed lands.
- SilverSilver sits at a technical crossroads heading into a heavy central bank week, according to recently published research.
- CopperCopper calls skew bullish on both the near-term tape and the structural story.
- OilCrude's near-term direction hinges on a single question: will the US resume strikes on Iran after the 3 November midterms?
- Natural gasNatural gas is a split story right now: calm on the screen, but a real tail risk if winter turns cold.
- US equitiesUS equities are split heading into FOMC week and mega-cap earnings, with published research pulling in opposite directions.
- European equitiesEuropean equities carry a mildly constructive tone this morning — but conviction is thin and there's no strong directional consensus in published research.
- US bondsPublished research this week leans toward higher US Treasury yields, especially at the long end — though the call is conditional and far from unanimous.
- EU bondsEuropean rate watchers are leaning toward more tightening ahead, though the near-term action looks concentrated at the ECB and the Bank of England.
- EUR/USDPublished research is turning more bearish on EUR/USD, with the pair sitting at year-to-date lows under broad dollar strength and an unresolved French budget standoff.
Macro
- Macro themesThe Fed's hawkish hold under Chair Warsh is the story of the day, with a December hike still the base case across most published research, set against an Iran-driven oil shock keeping Brent near $115 ahead of the US…
- Policy makersCentral banks are tilting hawkish as a Middle East energy shock keeps inflation sticky, according to this week's published research roundup.
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Every morning, what published research argued the day before: the cross-asset and macro read in full, then every market in a line.