The Fed's hawkish hold under Chair Warsh is the story of the day, with a December hike still the base case across most published research, set against an Iran-driven oil shock keeping Brent near $115 ahead of the US midterms.
The FOMC held at 3.75-4.00% in a 10-2 vote, with Hammack and Cook dissenting for a hike. The research consensus still expects a move in December, though analysts note the curve steepened after Warsh offered no forward guidance and declined to push back on dovish interpretations. One camp ties the policy debate directly to energy: a 2.5% hike elsewhere was framed as a response to oil pass-through risk. Several recently-published views link Brent's climb to reports that Washington told Gulf states to prepare for a short, intense campaign against Iran after the November 3 midterms, with some arguing Iranian oil revenues are heading toward zero.
A second thread: the AI capex boom. Researchers argue the investment need is approaching $10 trillion, and some flag widening credit spreads, with data-center bond yields reportedly near 7%. A contrarian view points to SK Hynix's record profit as proof demand remains durable.
Watch US PCE and Q3 GDP, big-tech earnings, and central bank decisions this week.