Copper calls skew bullish on both the near-term tape and the structural story.
Published research this week points to tightening physical supply as a near-term support: firm Chinese demand, a record Yangshan premium (what buyers in Shanghai pay over global benchmarks), and an LME spread moving deeper into backwardation — meaning traders are paying up for metal right now versus three months out. Lower Chinese domestic output and more copper flowing into the US are leaving less available elsewhere. That same analysis flags a caveat: price-sensitive buyers may balk at current elevated levels, and no time horizon is offered.
A separate, more structural view aired in recent commentary argues the setup is overwhelmingly bullish even if you strip out AI-driven demand. The claim: the world needs roughly six new tier-one copper projects per year through 2050, yet only six have come online in total since 2020. Expect corrective phases, this camp says, but the trend works higher over time.
By the numbers:
• Positioning (CFTC, as of 20 Oct 2026): Copper: speculators (managed money) are net long, 14.6% of open interest. Positioning is near the bottom of its 52-week range (COT index 26 of 100), not at an extreme. The net position fell by 13,368 contracts on the week.