Published research is turning more bearish on EUR/USD, with the pair sitting at year-to-date lows under broad dollar strength and an unresolved French budget standoff.
The case laid out this week leans on a few threads. Energy prices are already elevated, and some analysts flag the risk of a further spike if the US and Israel move against Iran after the US midterms — a scenario that would hit the euro harder than the dollar. On the policy side, researchers note that a softer bank lending survey out of the euro area could eventually take some steam out of tightening expectations, removing another prop for the currency.
On levels, the published view points to key support at 1.1065–1.1110. A clean break there, according to this analysis, would open the door toward 1.0880. The honest read from this camp: there isn't an obvious catalyst for a bounce in the near term.
As always, this is a summary of third-party research, not a FinChiefs call.
By the numbers:
• Positioning (CFTC, as of 20 Oct 2026): Euro: speculators (leveraged funds) are net short, 7.8% of open interest. That is the largest net short in a year: crowded short (COT index 0 of 100). The net position fell by 839 contracts on the week.