Assets

• Cross-assetHawkish Fed meets Middle East peace deal — and the result is a rare split where bond yields are climbing while oil is falling, forcing a two-speed adjustment across markets.
• GoldGold is caught in a tug-of-war, and published research is openly split on which way it breaks.
• SilverSilver faces a sharp cyclical headwind, according to research circulating this week, with the latest selloff tied directly to a hawkish shift in expected Fed policy under incoming Chair Kevin Warsh.
• CopperCopper's outlook splits cleanly by time horizon, according to a recent crosscurrent in published research.
• OilCrude oil's dominant signal right now is bearish: published research broadly argues the US–Iran deal and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz have stripped out the geopolitical risk premium, pushing Brent and WTI lower.
• Natural gasNatural gas: published research is leaning bullish, with one clear dissenting voice.
• BitcoinBitcoin views are split right now — and the disagreement is more about timeframe than fundamentals.
• US equitiesUS equities are flashing a split signal: near-term caution on a hawkish Fed sits alongside a louder strategic bull case built on AI-driven earnings and capex.
• European equitiesEuropean equities open on a cautious footing, with published research flagging near-term weakness in the DAX and a more durable bear case building around Germany's big three automakers.
• US bondsPublished research this week is overwhelmingly pointing to higher US Treasury yields — especially at the short and middle of the curve — after a hawkish shift from the Fed.
• EU bondsEuro investment-grade credit is the standout call in European fixed income today, according to recently published research.
• EUR/USDPublished research is leaning bearish on the euro near-term, with EUR/USD seen pinned in a 1.14–1.15 range — though one strategic call sees a multi-year rebound.

Macro

• Macro themesTwo stories are dominating macro conversations right now: a hawkish reset at the Federal Reserve and a US-Iran deal that's pulling the war premium out of oil.