Published research is leaning bearish on the euro near-term, with EUR/USD seen pinned in a 1.14–1.15 range — though one strategic call sees a multi-year rebound.
The common thread across recent analyst notes is the Fed's hawkish turn. Researchers argue the FOMC's tone, and the repricing of US short-term rates that followed, is the main force pushing the pair lower. One analysis points out EUR/USD tested 1.1500 after the Fed meeting and expects it to sit near the bottom of a 1.14–1.15 band through summer, with the ECB's own next move adding uncertainty. Another technical read flags that the pair has broken below its 50-day moving average and keeps making lower lows, consistent with steady capital flows into the dollar.
A contrarian, longer-horizon view stands apart: one strategic forecast sees a gradual climb from 1.15 toward 1.20 by end-2027 as energy shocks fade and inflation moderates. Notably, this isn't a near-term bullish call — the apparent disagreement is really about time horizon, not direction.