Gold is caught in a tug-of-war, and published research is openly split on which way it breaks.
The bearish case making the rounds in recent research leans on two forces: a hawkish Fed and fading geopolitical risk after the US–Iran agreement, which together drain safe-haven demand. Several analysts argue the metal stays pressured as oil softens and rate-cut hopes get repriced. One technical read flags a failed breakout and a downtrend reinforced by risk-on sentiment. A separate strand singles out the prospect of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair as a concrete headwind, with higher real rates weighing on gold.
The bull camp pushes back on different time horizons. Some recently published views argue near-term support persists because the Iran deal's implementation is still uncertain. Others frame the structural case around resilient Asian demand, particularly from China as import curbs ease, and around fiscal deficits and sticky inflation eventually reasserting themselves.
The real disagreement is tactical: same backdrop, opposite calls on what dominates now.