Natural gas: published research is leaning bullish, with one clear dissenting voice.
The bullish case from multiple research notes this week rests on El Niño dynamics — weaker hydropower and heavier air-conditioning demand across Asia are seen lifting gas consumption, while Europe and Asia compete for the same LNG cargoes. One camp of analysts argues US Henry Hub looks like an accumulation opportunity, pointing to storage 6% above the five-year average and floating a $3.05–$3.15 entry zone with upside above $4.
On Europe, some recently-published views frame the setup as acutely tight: Northwest European storage is reportedly near 35%, below last year's historic lows, and Qatari LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz are only starting to resume, with full recovery not expected until early September.
A contrarian thread of recent research pushes back, arguing speculative funds are unwinding TTF long positions as Hormuz normalises and supply risk fades. So the real debate is tactical positioning versus physical balances — both can be right for a while.