Two forces dominate the macro conversation right now, with a third running through both, according to recently published research.
The first is geopolitics. A wide swath of analysts flag the US-Iran ceasefire talks and a potential Strait of Hormuz reopening as the dominant near-term driver. Brent crude has already fallen roughly 18–20% from its May peak, though the published consensus cautions that full supply normalisation will take months.
The second is the Fed. With April PCE at 3.8% headline and 3.3% core, researchers broadly argue the Fed stays on hold, and futures are pricing rising odds of further hikes. Several note real disposable income has fallen for a third straight month, flagging consumer fragility.
Views diverge sharply on what comes next. One camp argues geopolitical de-escalation opens room for cuts; a contrarian thread sees rates on hold deep into 2027, partly because AI capex — record data-centre pipelines and hyperscaler spend projected above $900bn through 2027 — is lifting neutral rates.
Key catalysts: May payrolls, mid-June CPI, and the June 17 FOMC.