Bitcoin: the published research mood is uniformly bearish, with three independent strands of recent analysis all pointing lower — they only disagree on how far and how fast.
One camp of analysts blames deteriorating market structure, demand propped up by financial engineering, and an unfriendly macro and liquidity backdrop, and sees no near-term reversal — weakness as a cyclical theme playing out over the coming months.
A second research thread leans on historical bear-market cycles, noting the current drawdown of roughly 41% is shallower than the median past cycle. Extrapolating the trend of shrinking drawdowns, that work puts a potential bottom near $39.5k–$40k — implying about 46% further downside over the next six to twelve months, with a final capitulation leg viewed as historically plausible.
A more structurally critical strand of recently published views goes further, flagging that major buyers are sitting on no historical returns, that Bitcoin has decoupled from both gold and equities, and that Bitcoin-yield products have design flaws — framing the setup as risk of an outright collapse, no timeframe given.
Same direction, different conviction.