Published research is split on EUR/USD, with two camps arguing the euro grinds higher and a third holding a conviction short.
One published view sees a conditional, event-driven path higher: a German CPI print above 3% or a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could spark a relief rally above 1.18, though holding that level would require the Fed to turn more dovish and narrow rate differentials. A separate structural call projects EUR/USD rising from around 1.05 toward 1.17–1.22 through 2026–2027, as US-euro rate gaps narrow and the dollar gradually softens.
A contrarian thread of recent research argues the opposite with growing conviction. The bearish case points to deteriorating European data — negative PMIs, a Eurozone growth outlook marked down for a seventh straight month — plus real rate differentials and fair-value models all flagging the euro as rich. That camp sees further downside near-term, unconditionally.
The real disagreement: does euro-area weakness dominate, or do Fed easing and geopolitical relief win out?