The 2027 call on US Treasuries
- US bondslean yields rise↑ 17 houses yields fall↓ 46 houses yields rise
A house counts on the side its newest cyclical or strategic view argues: for a theme moving US Treasuries that way, or against a theme moving it the other way.
Price up, yields fall: the themes behind it
Price down, yields rise: the themes behind it
- 31 housesRiskRenewed rate hikes on sticky inflation push US bonds and stocks down↓ price, yields rise20 of 31 houses with a longer-term view flag it as material. All horizons: 92 of 128 (72%). Houses with a view: 45 asset managers · 43 banks · 24 independent research firms · 16 podcasts.
- 30 housesRiskSticky inflation keeps government bond yields high↓ price, yields rise16 of 30 houses with a longer-term view flag it as material. All horizons: 68 of 121 (56%). Houses with a view: 45 asset managers · 42 banks · 20 independent research firms · 14 podcasts.
- 30 housesRiskRising term premium keeps long government yields climbing↓ price, yields rise21 of 30 houses with a longer-term view flag it as material. All horizons: 72 of 109 (66%). Houses with a view: 41 banks · 37 asset managers · 18 independent research firms · 13 podcasts.
- 8 housesRiskAI funding squeeze risk weighs on US stocks and bonds↓ price, yields rise8 of 8 houses with a longer-term view flag it as material. All horizons: 68 of 73 (93%). Houses with a view: 23 banks · 23 asset managers · 16 independent research firms · 11 podcasts.
- 6 housesDebasement fears and US debt doubts lift gold and silver↓ price, yields rise6 of 6 houses with a longer-term view agree. All horizons: 8 of 8 (100%). Houses with a view: 5 podcasts · 2 independent research firms · 1 bank.
- 5 housesRiskRising defaults hit private credit and leveraged loans↓ price, yields rise3 of 5 houses with a longer-term view call it overdone. All horizons: 26 of 39 (67%). Houses with a view: 18 asset managers · 11 banks · 6 podcasts · 4 independent research firms.
- 3 housesRiskInflation shocks push US stocks and bonds down together↓ price, yields rise2 of 3 houses with a longer-term view call it overdone. All horizons: 14 of 24 (58%). Houses with a view: 12 asset managers · 6 banks · 3 independent research firms · 3 podcasts.
- 3 housesRiskFiat-currency doubts sink the dollar, US bonds and stocks; gold rises↓ price, yields rise3 of 3 houses with a longer-term view flag it as material. All horizons: 4 of 5 (80%). Houses with a view: 3 podcasts · 2 independent research firms.
Positioning
Source: CFTC Commitments of Traders; FinChiefs calculations. Report of 3 Nov 2026.
The numbers, free and updated daily
Also moving US Treasuries, all horizons
Themes on US Treasuries without enough longer-term houses yet, counted on every horizon.
Corporate bond supply surge widens credit spreads and hits bond prices
Heavy corporate bond issuance and tight spreads mean investment-grade credit is priced too richly, so spreads are likely to widen and hit bond prices.
See the tally →High yields make US government bonds attractive for carry
Government bond yields at multi-decade highs offer returns similar to equity earnings yields but with lower volatility, making high-grade fixed income attractive.
See the tally →Less Fed forward guidance pushes US bonds and stocks down
Less forward guidance and a more data-driven Fed communication style raise rate volatility, pushing US bond prices and US equities lower.
See the tally →Stagflation hits advanced economies into 2027
Below-trend growth combined with persistent inflation from energy and supply shocks could squeeze advanced economies, especially the euro area and the US, through 2027.
See the tally →Other markets in the 2027 outlook
Questions
What do research houses expect for US Treasuries in 2027?
17 houses with a longer-term view argue for yields to fall and 46 for yields to rise. The strongest case up: Sticky inflation keeps government bond yields high (16 of 30 houses with a longer-term view flag it as material). The strongest case down: Rising term premium keeps long government yields climbing (21 of 30 houses with a longer-term view flag it as material).
Which research houses are counted?
Banks, asset managers, independent research firms and podcasts whose published research FinChiefs indexes: one vote per house, its newest cyclical or strategic view on US Treasuries in the last 30 days. Types only on this page; members see each house by name.
Is this investment advice?
No. Themes summarise what research houses argue. FinChiefs takes no view of its own. Instruments shown are the ones research houses name, not selected or endorsed by FinChiefs. Not investment advice. No prices are shown and no instrument pays to appear.
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