Published research is split on where US Treasury yields head next — but the split is mostly about timing, not direction.
The dominant view from recent research argues yields grind higher across the curve. The case: hot inflation prints (September headline CPI at 3.7%), a Fed widely expected to hold in October and hike in December, rising term premia from AI-related borrowing, ~$1.2T in US interest expense, and foreign demand softening as Chinese Treasury holdings sit at an 18-year low. Some technical work points to 10-year targets of 5.75–6.25%, with one more aggressive call looking for 6% by year-end.
A contrarian thread sees it differently. One camp argues inflation peaks in early 2027 and drifts back toward 2%, implying the 10-year is overshooting fair value — with forecasts near 4.75% by end-2026. Others flag crowded short positioning as fuel for a near-term reversal.
On credit, several analysts warn AI-linked corporate bonds are a potential flashpoint, pointing to CoreWeave unsecured yields near 15% as an early stress signal.