Published research this week leans heavily toward higher US Treasury yields, with AI-linked corporate debt flagged as the main pressure point in credit.
The dominant view across recently published analysis ties the move to oil near $110 and expectations of further Fed hikes, keeping 2-year yields under upward pressure. Several research notes argue the curve is already priced for higher-for-longer rates, with one flagging that the 10-year term premium has risen roughly 30bp to its highest since 2014 on fiscal concerns. Another thread points to rising global neutral rates from AI capital demand plus midterm-driven spending. More extreme published calls see 10-year yields reaching 6–8%, or even 7–8% over several years if AI meaningfully lifts nominal growth.
A smaller camp of analysts sees room for yields to fall, but mostly under specific conditions: a durable pullback in oil, or safe-haven flows if geopolitical stress and unrest in France intensify. One contrarian view suggests a yield top may already be in, citing weak housing data.
In credit, researchers are split on AI-linked "neocloud" bonds — some see value after the selloff, others expect more pain.