Published research this week leaned toward higher US yields and another Fed hike before year-end, even as a tech-led risk-off bid gave Treasuries a short-term reprieve.
Hotter September CPI and PPI, resilient retail sales, and ISM services prices paid at 70.7 pushed several analysts to argue the Fed will have to tighten again — most now point to December rather than October, after Chair Warsh's wait-and-see tone cut October hike odds below 20%. One thread sees terminal rate expectations drifting higher into 2027 as AI capex and sticky core goods keep inflation elevated.
On the long end, researchers tied the 150bp rise in long yields to the AI/data center buildout absorbing global savings, loose financial conditions, and persistent deficits. One view flagged 6% on the 10Y as "possible" on forced selling.
Counterpoint: the tech-driven equity wobble sparked a flight to quality, and a contrarian thread argued every major yield spike since 1990 has reversed within 12–24 months. Municipals and front-end BB high yield were highlighted as attractive carry; lower-quality AI-linked credit spreads were flagged as vulnerable.