Published research this week is overwhelmingly pointing to higher US Treasury yields across the curve — with only a small contrarian camp calling a top.
The consensus argument rests on three pillars: sticky inflation keeping the Fed cautious, a worsening US fiscal picture pushing up term premium and supply concerns, and positioning dynamics in the Treasury market itself — where some analysts warn that an unwind of hedge-fund basis trades could amplify any move higher. One widely-circulated projection has the 10-year yield peaking near 5.2% by end-2026.
On corporate credit, researchers flag a broad investment-grade index already at 313bps over Treasuries, with CDS prices jumping on names like CoreWeave and Oracle. A separate thread highlights triple-C spreads starting to widen — historically an early warning on financial conditions. One tactical view goes the other way, treating 7–8% investment-grade yields as an attractive entry.
The clearest disagreement is on the long end: a contrarian minority argues yields have already peaked, while the majority sees structural pressure keeping them elevated. Municipal bonds are the other outlier, with some published views framing recent weakness as a buying opportunity.