Published research is lining up behind one message on US Treasuries: yields are heading higher, and bond prices lower.
The trigger, cited across nearly every recent note, is the hotter-than-expected September CPI print, which has put additional Fed hikes back on the table. Analysts also point to structural pressures — large fiscal deficits, heavy Treasury issuance, and AI-driven capital spending that keeps borrowing demand elevated regardless of rate levels. On the 10-year, one camp targets a return to 5.25%–5.5% over coming quarters, another sees 5.20% by end-2026, and a more aggressive thread flags a technical path toward 6%. The 30-year has already reached its highest level since 2002.
In credit, researchers flag widening high-yield spreads as an early stress signal, with decompression concentrated in tech and hyperscaler names. AI infrastructure bonds — CoreWeave 2032s in particular — are drawing explicit warnings of restructuring risk and further downside.
The main nuance: some strategists like front-end Treasuries for carry, framing it as relative value rather than a call for lower yields.