Published research this week leans bearish on US Treasury prices, with most analysts expecting yields to grind higher — though a notable contrarian camp calls current levels a rare buying opportunity.
The consensus across recent research points to the same drivers: the Fed's hike to 3.75–4.00% in September, sticky inflation, firm oil prices, and investors demanding more compensation to hold long-dated bonds. One widely circulated forecast sees the 10-year yield reaching 5.30% by late 2026 and 5.50% in early 2027. Other analysts argue restrictive central bank policy and elevated term premia aren't easing anytime soon.
The contrarian thread frames 10-year yields above 5% as a once-in-a-generation entry point, with several researchers overweight the 2–5 year part of the curve after the selloff. On credit, some published views are constructive on investment grade and high yield, while others warn of stress in the lowest-rated tier and more spread widening tied to heavy AI-related corporate issuance.
The apparent conflict is mostly about horizon: tactical views see yields higher near-term, while medium-term calls assume we're near the peak.