Published research this week leans heavily toward higher US Treasury yields — bad news for bond prices — with only a few conditional dissents.
The bull case for yields rests on three pillars that most analysts now share. First, a rising term premium tied to fiscal uncertainty, heavy government borrowing, and sticky inflation. Second, a hawkish Fed path: one widely circulated view sees two more hikes by early 2027, though another camp warns markets have priced tightening even more aggressively than the Fed itself signals. Third, resilient growth that keeps forcing the expected policy path higher. A more structural argument adds that the mix of borrowers and rising repo volumes is mechanically lifting yields, with latent liquidity risk. A hot CPI print, some note, could reignite "Fed isn't done" pricing.
The clearest split is on the 10-year. Most see yields rising; a contrarian thread argues that strong auction demand or softer core CPI could cap or reverse the move. A separate strategic view holds that yields near 5% already offer historically attractive long-term entry — compatible with near-term pressure higher.