Published research this week leans heavily bearish on US Treasury prices — the dominant view is that yields grind higher from here, with only a minority calling for a reversal lower.
The core case, as laid out across recent analyst notes: sticky inflation, hawkish Fed signaling, and heavy Treasury supply are keeping rate expectations elevated, with market-implied odds of another hike running above 80% by year-end. Several research desks note 10- and 30-year yields recently hit 24-year highs, arguing elevated real yields are justified by fiscal strain and the AI capex boom. A more technical thread highlights mortgage convexity hedging as a self-reinforcing accelerant when yields spike. The most aggressive published target calls for a 6% 10-year yield before year-end.
The contrarian camp argues the selloff has overshot fundamentals, expects yields to drift lower into 2026 as rate-cut pricing builds, and sees value buyers emerging at 20-year highs.
In credit, the consensus flags stress in CCC-rated debt from refinancing costs, though one view argues 8%+ starting yields in high yield historically precede positive returns.