Published research this week points firmly to higher US Treasury yields across the curve, with the 10Y and 30Y already at multi-decade highs. The only near-term bullish case for bond prices rests on a conditional flight-to-quality move, which most analysts treat as a tactical exception rather than the base case.
The reasoning converges on a few threads. Researchers argue sticky inflation, energy shocks, and a Fed widely expected to deliver at least one more hike keep upward pressure on yields. A structurally important point raised in recent notes: rising Japanese bond yields may pull Japanese pension and insurance money out of Treasuries, forcing US yields higher to attract replacement buyers. Several analysts also point to the latest FOMC minutes as confirming a hawkish consensus, with fiscal deficits, AI-driven corporate borrowing, and a higher neutral rate cited as structural anchors for elevated long-end yields.
On credit, one camp expects high-yield spreads to widen toward roughly 300bps over the next year as higher rates strain balance sheets, while investment-grade spreads face pressure from a wave of AI-related issuance. A contrarian thread favors inflation-linked bonds over nominal Treasuries on a multi-year view.