Published research this week leans heavily toward one view on US Treasuries: yields across the curve are more likely to stay elevated or push higher, not fall.
The dominant argument from researchers is structural. Large and growing federal deficits mean more borrowing, which pushes up the extra compensation investors demand to hold longer-dated bonds. Fed minutes themselves noted 2Y–10Y yields rose about 35bp between meetings, tied to sticky inflation, geopolitics, and a wave of private debt issuance funding the AI infrastructure build-out. Several analysts flag 10Y yields near multi-decade highs as a systemic risk, with one published target as high as 5.5%.
A contrarian thread sees it differently: if inflation rolls over within 12 months, the Fed could cut, making today's yields an attractive entry point. But this camp explicitly conditions its view on inflation cooling — not a true disagreement so much as a different base case.
On credit, some recently-published views warn that record AI-sector issuance is pressing against what markets can absorb, with early stress visible in the lowest-rated corporate spreads.