The published research consensus leans heavily bearish on US Treasuries: yields are biased higher across tactical, cyclical, and strategic horizons, with only a narrow contrarian camp seeing near-term relief.
The case researchers are making is unusually broad. Recent analysis flags ISM Services Prices Paid at 74.0 — a level rarely seen outside historic inflation episodes — with no industries reporting price declines so far this year. Multiple research threads document weak Treasury auction demand, fading foreign appetite (notably from China), and a "buyer strike" pattern where auction weeks see materially worse bond performance. A separate strand ties this to fiscal arithmetic: a deficit near 6% of GDP and debt around 125%, pushing the term premium higher. Some recently-published views frame it as a structural regime shift away from the post-2008 era of central bank rate suppression, with one contrarian argument suggesting sub-5% yields are "unlikely to return for generations." Published timelines run from early 2027 out to 2030.
On credit, researchers highlight US investment-grade spreads already roughly 35bp wider since August as heavy AI and data-center issuance competes with Treasury supply, with high-yield seen widening further. A constructive outlier argues US municipal bonds now offer multi-year-high value after the sell-off, with credit quality at its strongest in over two decades.
Dissenters exist but are scenario-driven: one cyclical view sees 10Y yields peaking if fiscal credibility is restored; a tactical call expects a dip below 5% on soft jobs data, without challenging the longer-term thesis.