Published research is leaning heavily bearish on US Treasuries — meaning yields across the 2Y, 10Y, and 30Y are biased higher, with bond prices under pressure.
The reasoning converges across several analyst camps. Persistent US fiscal deficits and heavy Treasury supply are the most-cited structural force, with researchers noting that borrowing demand from both the government and the private-sector AI buildout is pushing real yields up. One widely-circulated fair-value model pegs the 10Y near 6%, roughly 80 basis points above where it trades now. Resilient growth data and sticky inflation, analysts argue, leave the Fed little room to pivot dovish. A more alarming thread describes the market as stuck in a "vicious loop" of selling, with some scenario work flagging 30Y yields potentially reaching 7.25–8.00% under a geopolitical shock.
The dissenting voices are narrower than they look. A tactical camp expects a short-term bounce on extreme positioning; another ties lower yields to post-midterm fiscal gridlock. Different horizons, not a real rebuttal.