Published research is leaning one way on US Treasuries: long-end yields biased higher, even as a tactical camp sees room for a near-term pullback from oversold levels.
The bearish-bonds case, laid out across a broad swath of recent research, rests on fiscal sustainability concerns, heavy Treasury supply, sticky inflation, and a higher-for-longer Fed. One fair-value model circulating in published work pegs the "right" 10Y yield near 6%. A contrarian thread highlights AI-sector corporate borrowing crowding out Treasury demand. Some analysts frame long-end pressure through the same lens driving gold's rally: fiscal risk premia.
On the other side, a tactical camp notes 2Y yields have already dropped roughly 10bps after Fed Vice Chair Jefferson and Governor Bowman dialed back urgency on further hikes. Several researchers see weaker job openings and softer consumer confidence pulling yields lower over a 6–12 month window, and point to yields sitting about 2.5 standard deviations above their 20-week mean as ripe for mean reversion.
On credit, the published consensus is that high-yield spreads — already about 50bps wider over eight sessions — and investment-grade spreads have further to widen.