Published research this week leans firmly bearish on US Treasury bond prices, with most analysts expecting yields to grind higher across the curve in the near term.
The core argument from the research consensus: sticky above-target inflation, strong nominal GDP, and a Fed that may not be done hiking. One camp of analysts argues the bar for the Fed to pause is higher than markets assume. Others point to multi-trillion-dollar deficits and AI-driven investment as structural supports for elevated yields, with a technical thread even flagging a chart pattern that projects the 10-year toward 6%. Heavy Treasury issuance and shifting demand are cited as added headwinds.
Dissent exists but is mostly about timing. A contrarian strand of recent research suggests 10-year real yields near 18-year highs create an attractive asymmetric setup — a 1% yield drop would deliver roughly +12.7% versus just -1.6% for a 1% rise. Some strategic views also see yields topping out over 6–12 months as credit tightens and the Fed is eventually forced to ease.
NY Fed's Williams has, per reporting, dialed back urgency on an October hike — a modest reprieve for the short end if the Fed holds.