Treasury yields are the fight of the moment: most published research says they head higher from here, but a vocal minority argues the top is already in.
The bearish-on-bonds camp (bullish on yields) leans on a hawkish Fed under Chair Kevin Warsh, who has openly rejected a "one and done" cut, plus sticky inflation from Middle East energy prices and AI-driven investment demand. Layer on heavy Treasury issuance and fading foreign buyers, and multiple research desks see structural pressure on the long end. One recurring argument is that AI productivity gains lift the neutral rate itself, keeping 10s and 30s elevated for years.
A contrarian thread of recent research pushes back: at roughly 5.25%, much of that bad news is already priced in, and current levels are being framed as a cyclical buying opportunity in 10Y Treasuries and investment grade credit, with IG yields above 6% called genuinely attractive. Some analysts add that easing oil and geopolitical tensions could pull yields lower into Q4.
One area of agreement: the curve likely flattens further, with the 2Y outrunning the 10Y as more hikes get priced into 2026–27. TIPS are also singled out by some researchers as the one appealing government bond segment, given elevated real yields.