Published research this week leans heavily bearish on US Treasuries: most analysts expect yields to stay elevated or push higher across tactical and cyclical horizons.
The bull-case-for-yields argument rests on a few reinforcing pillars, according to the recent research consensus. Persistent inflation — driven by energy prices and Middle East tensions — is cited as the primary catalyst. Fed officials remain in a data-dependent tightening posture. Several strategists highlight a "crowding out" dynamic, where heavy US deficits and AI-related capex are flooding bond markets with supply while competing for capital. One widely-cited fair-value model pegs the 10Y yield at 6.18%, nearly 100 basis points above spot. Weak auction demand and retreating foreign buyers in Japan and China are said to amplify the pressure, and widening high-yield credit spreads suggest funding stress on the weakest borrowers.
A contrarian thread pushes back: a minority of researchers argue yields near 5.2% already price in the negatives, making long-duration Treasuries attractive on a 12-month-plus view. But that's the exception, not the rule.