Published research this week points overwhelmingly to higher US Treasury yields across the curve — meaning lower bond prices — with the 2Y, 10Y and 30Y all seen under upward pressure.
The reasoning converges on three drivers. On policy, most analysts expect at least one more Fed hike this year following the recent 25bp move, citing the hawkish dot plot and Chair Warsh's explicit inflation-fighting stance. Structurally, a broad research consensus flags fiscal deficits, heavy Treasury issuance and eroded fiscal credibility as forces pushing long-end yields and term premiums higher regardless of near-term Fed moves. A third strand highlights the AI capex boom: hyperscaler borrowing is flooding corporate credit markets and competing for capital, lifting yields across maturities.
On the long end, several strategic outlooks see no ceiling at 5% on the 10Y and view 6% on the 30Y as plausible. A contrarian thread argues yields are still too low versus real inflation. Most researchers now push any rate cuts out to 2027–2028 at the earliest.
On credit, some recently published views find investment grade and high yield attractive on an all-in yield basis, though one camp cautions on duration.