Published research this week leans heavily toward higher US Treasury yields — bearish for bond prices — with only a small contrarian camp pushing back.
The Fed just raised rates 25bps to 3.75–4.00%, and the dot plot signals at least one more hike this year. Markets are pricing in 2–3 more through 2026–27. Researchers argue four forces are stacking up: tighter Fed policy, sticky inflation from energy, tariffs and AI capex, record deficits with $860bn of fresh debt issuance in four months, and foreign holders like Japan and China trimming Treasury holdings.
The published consensus sees the 10-year yield breaking above 5%, with some targeting 5.25–5.50%. Analysts also flag widening credit spreads and mortgage rates staying elevated as a mechanical follow-through. Inflation-protected bonds get called out as increasingly attractive if price pressures persist.
A contrarian thread argues today's yields are an overshoot and should drift back toward 4% as inflation cools. The Fed's own projections also show rates easing after 2026 — so the real debate isn't the next few months, it's the 12-month-plus horizon.