Published research this week is overwhelmingly lined up in one direction on US Treasuries: yields are staying high, and the risks skew higher still.
The consensus across recently-published analyst notes points to a Fed still signaling at least one more 25bp hike, sticky inflation, energy risks tied to the Iran conflict, and a labor market that refuses to crack. On top of that, researchers argue heavy Treasury issuance and deepening fiscal concerns are creating a structural "demand problem" — one camp goes as far as describing a global investor repudiation of US debt. One recently-published year-end target on the 10-year sits at 5.1%, with a stress case of 5.25–5.50%.
Under the hood, the published view is that front-end yields have more room to rise than the long end, implying a flatter curve. Some analysts see tactical value in 5- and 7-year Treasuries, and constructive setups in short-dated high yield credit given the refinancing wall pushed out to 2028–29.
The lone contrarian thread: crowded short positioning could spark a short-term "pain trade" rally in bonds — a tactical call, not a structural one.