Published research this week points overwhelmingly to higher US Treasury yields, especially at the 10-year, with only a small contrarian thread flagging eventual declines further out.
The drivers analysts keep returning to: inflation still running above target and boosted by rising oil, expectations of one to four more Fed hikes, a growing term premium as heavy Treasury supply meets big fiscal deficits, and AI-related capital spending pulling money away from bonds. One published model puts 10-year fair value near 6%, while another camp targets 5.25–5.50% if the Fed signals only modest further tightening.
The picture splits by maturity. Short-end views lean higher on near-term Fed pricing. In the 3–5 year belt, a tactical minority sees room for prices to firm as inflation moderates. At the long end, the consensus is clearly for higher yields, with term premium and supply doing the work.
Where researchers appear to disagree on the 10-year, it's mostly about timing — higher now, potentially lower in 2027 once cuts get priced — rather than genuine conflict.