Published research this week leans strongly toward higher US Treasury yields — with a smaller camp arguing the cycle is already peaking.
The dominant thread across recently published analysis points to fiscal pressure: persistent federal deficits, heavy Treasury supply, and a wave of AI-related corporate bond issuance crowding out long-duration buyers. Several researchers add that sticky inflation and hawkish Fed commentary — including from Boston Fed's Susan Collins amid a visibly divided FOMC — keep near-term pressure on yields. Tariff-driven inflation is flagged by some as compounding the bond-negative backdrop.
The 30-year is singled out by more than one research thread as the most vulnerable tenor, with a break above 5.20% cited as a level that could trigger a disorderly move higher.
A contrarian view holds that Treasury funding tools — TGA deployment, lighter coupon issuance at the November refunding, more T-bill supply — can suppress long-end volatility. And one cyclical camp expects yields to roll over as disinflation reasserts.
On TIPS, the published consensus is constructive: real yields near 2.5% are described as attractive even without a persistent-inflation view. Investment-grade credit spreads are expected by some to widen as hyperscaler issuance floods the market.