Published research is broadly aligned: US Treasury yields, especially at the long end, are expected to stay elevated or push higher — with disagreement mostly about short-term wobbles, not direction.
The structural case rests on three pillars researchers keep returning to. First, fiscal strain: deficits running $1.9–2 trillion a year and rising Treasury issuance. Second, sticky inflation from tariffs, Gulf tensions, and the AI capex boom — reducing the odds of near-term rate cuts. Third, weaker foreign demand from Japan, China, and Europe, compounded by policy uncertainty under incoming Fed leadership (Kevin Warsh).
Several published models argue the 10Y sits roughly 113bps below fair value, with one forecast flagging 4.75% on the 10Y and ~5.3% on the 30Y within four to six weeks. The long bond is where analysts see the most exposure. On TIPS, one constructive view favors them as a way to play sticky inflation.
A contrarian thread cautions against shorting bonds given the risk of Treasury intervention. Near-term dips tied to data prints or policy signals are seen as tactical pauses — not a reversal.