Published research this week leans toward higher US Treasury yields — especially at the long end — with the fiscal story doing most of the heavy lifting.
The consensus across recently-published analysis points to an unsustainable US fiscal path: persistent deficits, heavy issuance, and softer foreign demand pushing investors to demand more compensation for holding long bonds. Sticky inflation, underscored by the hotter July PCE print, is reinforcing that view, with some researchers even flagging grounds for a September Fed hike.
A contrarian thread argues for a near-term floor under bond prices — what some analysts have dubbed a "Bessent Put," referring to Treasury tools like buybacks, cash management, and foreign central bank coordination that could cap yields tactically. One camp also sees the 3–5Y part of the curve as the sweet spot: shielded from Fed volatility at the front end and fiscal risk at the long end.
Genuine disagreement is narrow. A minority view holds that 10Y yields drift lower into 2025 as inflation cools and cuts arrive — against a broader published consensus expecting yields to stay elevated or climb.