Published research is broadly leaning one way on US Treasuries: long-end yields are heading higher, driven by fiscal deterioration and heavy debt supply.
The core argument across recent research notes is a toxic mix — persistent US deficits, rising term premia, and relentless Treasury issuance. Several analyst camps flag the absence of credible fiscal consolidation as a near-term catalyst, with one warning the 30-year yield could break above 5.34% without meaningful policy action. A parallel thread argues that AI-driven capital competition is lifting the neutral rate, adding a structural layer to the pressure. Some researchers see the 10-year testing 4.75%–5%, and a value-oriented view treats 5% on the 10-year and 6% on the 30-year as entry levels rather than ceilings.
The front end tells a different story. A minority view holds that 2-year yields are better supported after softer inflation prints and fading rate-hike odds, with anticipated Fed cuts eventually dominating term premia — producing a steeper curve rather than uniformly higher yields.
On credit, one camp highlights robust investment-grade demand and record fund inflows, while a contrarian thread warns that hyperscaler AI issuers with negative free cash flow could pressure IG spreads wider.
Treasury buyback operations are the main counterweight cited, but most published views dismiss them as too small to reverse the trend.