Published research is sharply divided on where US Treasury yields go from here, and the split comes down to fiscal reality versus policy intervention.
One camp of analysts argues yields must push higher on structural grounds. The most aggressive published targets put the 10-year near 5.75–5.80% and the 30-year around 6.5%, citing persistent deficits, fading foreign demand, and heavy corporate issuance — especially from AI-sector borrowers — competing for the same capital. A broader research consensus frames 4.70–5%+ as the new normal.
A contrarian thread of recent research counters that Treasury's expanded buyback program — doubling long-end purchases funded by short-dated bills — will cap 10- and 30-year yields at least through the midterm cycle. One outlier view goes further, sketching a bust scenario where the 10-year drifts toward zero over 18 months.
Researchers largely agree the disagreement is really about horizon: tactical suppression may work for months, but structural fiscal pressure eventually dominates.
On TIPS, some recently-published views frame real yields above 3% as a rare entry point. On investment-grade credit, most argue spreads widen from here, with one dissent.