Published research this week leans bearish on US Treasury prices, with long-end yields seen as most exposed — though a notable cluster of analysts expects the Treasury's expanded buyback program to pull yields down briefly before the uptrend resumes.
The dominant case cited across recent research: sticky inflation, rising oil prices, and large fiscal deficits with no political appetite for correction. Several research notes flag 10Y and 30Y yields near multi-decade highs, with Fed policy uncertainty and heavy AI infrastructure spending called out as structural accelerants. Absent deficit reduction or meaningful Fed tightening, one camp argues sovereign supply-demand pressures simply persist.
A contrarian thread sees value emerging: the Treasury's doubled buyback program for 10–30Y maturities is widely cited as a near-term yield suppressor, and one strategic view holds that stablecoin reserve demand could structurally push T-bill yields lower through 2030.
On the Fed funds rate, market pricing implies a hike by late 2026, while surveyed dealers median expectation is no move until 2028 — a genuine split on how fast inflation resolves.